He's Back! (Again)

To retire, or not to retire. That seems to be the question that Brett Favre has constantly been asking himself the last two years. After successfully avoiding much of training camp, Favre signed with Minnesota and is set to start their 2nd preseason game vs. Kansas City Friday tonight. Favre is definitely an upgrade over Sage Rosenfels and Tarvaris Jackson at QB, but how much can you depend on Favre for your fantasy team this year? At 39 years old, and coming off a partially torn rotator cuff, Favre would be a good backup QB on your team, but I would be very hesitant to rely on him as your starter. In addition to age and possible lingering injuries, Favre will most likely attempt less passes this year. Comparing play calling last season, the NY Jets were 56% pass/44% run, while Minnesota had a 53% run/47% pass split. Make no mistake - Minnesota is Adrian Peterson's team and still a run first unit (4th most rushing attempts last season). The biggest boosts come for Bernard Berrian, Visanthe Shiancoe, Sidney Rice, and Percy Harvin. Favre should be more consistent getting the WRs and TE the ball compared to what they had last year or going into this year. The only question I think that remains....will John Madden come out of retirement to follow his beloved Favre?

Looking to Join More Leagues This Year

Are you looking for another fantasy football league to join this year, but have run out of friends? Let me introduce you to Rapid Draft.

It's a unique entry into the fantasy football world. For less than $10 for the entire season, you will compete against a set of 11 experts in an online draft and regular season. One of the best features of Rapid Draft is your ability to choose your draft spot. If you weren't lucky enough to get a top 3 pick in your local league and really want Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew or Matt Forte on your team, you can pick draft position #1. If you have an early pick with your buddies, but want to have a team with 2 top WRs to start with, you can select draft position #10. It's all up to you! The best part is for a $10 entry fee you are competing for a $250,000 Grand Prize. Where else can you get odds like that on your money?!

Old Faces, New Places Part III

5. Derrick Ward - NY Giants to Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay sure was busy this off season adding Ward, Byron Leftwich and Kellen Winslow to their offense. While serving as Brandon Jacobs backup last season in New York, Ward was still able to rush for over 1,000 yards and haul in 41 receptions. Those are pretty impressive numbers for a #2 RB. Ward's projections are diluted a bit since he will share carries this season with Earnest Graham, but Ward should be the starter from day 1. If your draft strategy relies on drafting a RB, and then selecting WRs or a QB, Ward can fit in nicely as your #2 RB in the 4th/5th rounds


4. Terrell Owens - Dallas to Buffalo: Owens is a physical specimen. There is no doubt about that fact. However, I can't get really excited about a 35 year old receiver leaving a top 10 passing team (8th most passing attempts) with Tony Romo to a top 10 rushing team (9th most rushing attempts) with Trent Edwards. He does have Lee Evans opposite him which should prevent many double teams, and Buffalo does have a relatively good schedule vs. pass defenses this year. Owens will be a pretty good #2 WR on most teams this year with a top end stat line of 75 receptions, 1,200 yards, and 8-10 TDs. If you can draft Owens as your #3 WR, you will be in an even better situation.

3. TJ Houshmandzadeh - Cincinnati to Seattle: Seattle might have been one of the worst injury riddled offenses last season with Matt Hasselbeck, Nate Burleson, Deion Branch, and Bobby Engram all missing time. Houshmandzadeh also lost his starting QB for much of last season, but was still able to reel in 92 receptions for 904 yards, and 4 TDs. The 4 TDs were a big disappointment for Houshmandzadeh owners after he caught 12 TDs the previous year. He should rebound with at least 8-10 TDs this season as he becomes Hasselbeck's #1 WR in a pass friendly West Coast offense. It also won't hurt to swap 4 games vs. Pittsburgh and Baltimore for 4 games vs. St Louis and San Francisco.

2. Tony Gonzalez - Kansas City to Atlanta: I know of one Kansas City fan whose heart broke when she heard Gonzalez had been traded to Atlanta, and I am sure it was a wide spread thought among their fan base. Gonzalez has been one of the most consistent TEs over the years (averaged 82 receptions, 995 yards, 7 TDs over the past 10 years) and provides a great option for 2nd year QB Matt Ryan. Gonzalez has admitted to struggling with the Atlanta playbook during camp, but I expect him to be ready for the season come September 13th. Look for this future Hall of Famer to finish as a top 5 TE once again this season.

1. Jay Cutler - Denver to Chicago: In what was one of the biggest trades in recent memory, Chicago finally landed the franchise QB they have been wanting for decades. Cutler won't be slinging the ball as often as last year (616 attempts), but the Chicago offense isn't nearly as conservative as you would think (14th most passing attempts last year, 55% of plays). Cutler won't have quite the weapons he had in Denver, but Matt Forte, Greg Olsen, Devin Hester and Earl Bennett should provide enough support for Cutler. Will Cutler finish in the top 5 QB rankings like last year? Probably not, but I still see him as a low end #1 QB who you can wait on until the middle rounds of your draft to select.

Old Faces, New Places Part II

10. Fred Taylor - Jacksonville to New England: How much does Fragile Fred have left in the tank? Typically once RBs reach 30+ years old, their production tends to decline and Taylor has a long injury history as well. The New England backfield is crowded (Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney) and head coach Bill Belichick is on record stating he will stick with the hot hand. Will Taylor be that hot hand? Sure, it's possible, but how long would it last? There are better options at RB to have on your squad this year.

9. Laveranues Coles - NY Jets to Cincinnati: Coles signed with Cincinnati during the off season and will be asked to fill the shoes of the recently departed T.J. Houshmandzadeh as the possession receiver. Carson Palmer is recovering from elbow issues last season, but if he is healthy, the Cincinnati offense could bounce back. Depending on which Chad Ochocinco shows up this season (90 receptions, 1,400 yards avg in 2006-07 or 53 receptions, 540 yard in 2008), if opposing defenses have to key on him, Coles could benefit from single coverage and the quick underneath routes. If things go right in Cincinnati, I see Coles as a solid #3 WR or flex position starter.

8. Sage Rosenfels - Houston to Minnesota: When Matt Schaub missed 6 games last year for Houston, Rosenfels stepped in and averaged 250 yards and 1 TD per game. He is currently in a battle with Tavaris Jackson for the starting spot in Minnesota, but I think he will ultimately win the job. Minnesota is still a running team first (4th most rushing attempts last year), but there are some play makers at WR and TE, plus a favorable schedule this year. Rumors have surfaced once again that Brett Favre may in fact be signing with the Minnesota Vikings once training camp has ended. IF that happens, slide Favre into this spot instead of Rosenfels with a little more upside.

7. (tie) Kyle Orton - Chicago to Denver: Orton was said to be one of the keys to the biggest trade this off season between Denver and Chicago. After this season, the picture should be more clear on whether a QB makes his WRs or if the WRs make the QB. Orton's WR core is definitely upgraded in Denver with Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Brandon Stokley, and Jabar Gaffney. Orton finished with decent numbers last season (2,972 yards, 18 passing TDs, 3 rushing TDs) and will have plenty of opportunities in a pass friendly offense in Denver. Orton could be a solid spot starter or bye week fill.

7. (tie) Matt Cassel - New England to Kansas City: Will Cassel be the latest player from New England to come out of nowhere and become a star in the NFL? When Drew Bledsoe went down with an injury in 2001, a relatively unknown Tom Brady stepped onto the stage and became a future All-Pro. When Brady was lost for the season during the home opener last year, Cassel attempted his best impersonation of Brady's act 7 years earlier. Cassel won't have the same caliber of weapons in Kansas City this season and losing Tony Gonzalez to Atlanta hurt some of his potential. Lucky for Cassel, he will be playing in the Wild Wild AFC West and will have plenty of opportunities to throw, throw, and throw some more. Cassel could be a low end #1 QB this year, but may be better suited as a solid #2 QB.

6. Kellen Winslow - Cleveland to Tampa Bay: Winslow has no shortage of talent to be a consistent top 5 TE in the NFL, but injuries have derailed him at many turns. He badly wanted out of Cleveland and received his wish by landing in Tampa Bay. There are many new parts in Tampa Bay this year including a new offensive coordinator, QB, and RB in addition to Winslow. Jeff Jagodzinski is on the record stating that Winslow will be used extensively, and there is no reason to doubt that statement. Winslow is a solid starting #1 TE this year, but be sure to back him up with a good #2 TE on your team, just in case the injury bug bites him again.

Old Faces, New Places

Training camps have begun, Brett Favre has announced his retirement (again), and August 1st is a few days away. It is time to get down to business, put in some work, and most importantly, have some fun as Draft Day approaches for everyone. My first installment will focus on what I believe are the top player movements this off season.

Let's begin with the Honorable Mentions.

LJ Smith - Philadelphia to Baltimore: Todd Heap is still with Baltimore and is ahead of Smith on the depth charts. If Heap were to go down with an injury, Smith could have some nice value as a backup TE on your roster.

Nate Washington - Pittsburgh to Tennessee: Washington signed a 6 year, $27 Million contract with Tennessee, and with a payday like that, he will be starting alongside Justin Gage. However, Tennessee is a run first team (4th most rushing attempts last year) and they like to utilize their TE in the passing game. Temper expectations accordingly.

Bobby Engram - Seattle to Kansas City: How much does the 36 year old receiver have left? There are many new faces in Kansas City this year, including Matt Cassel and head coach Todd Haley. The offense will throw, throw, and throw some more if Haley has anything to say about it. Engram could carve out a nice role as the slot receiver, but don't expect numbers like Wes Welker had with Cassel under center last year.

Torry Holt - St Louis to Jacksonville: One of the most consistent WRs over the last 9 years, Holt began to show his age and slow down last year on a bad St Louis team. He has new life in Jacksonville, but don't expect him to rebound to his 80-90 receptions, 1,300-1,500 yards days. Jacksonville will feature Maurice Jones-Drew and many of the looks in the passing game will also go to the RBs. Look to Holt as your #3 WR at best.

Keep an eye out for the Top 10+1 player movements later this week.

Another Denver Pro Bowler on the way out?

According to CBSSports.com, it looks like Brandon Marshall will be granted his trade request by the Denver Broncos. This would be the second Bronco Pro Bowler to ask for, and receive, a trade this off season. I'm not sure exactly what is going on with new head coach Josh McDaniels and team owner Pat Bowlen, but it can't be good. One of the few bright spots for the Broncos last year was their offense, ranking 2nd in the NFL in total yards from scrimmage. Drafting Knowshon Moreno was a good move to solidify the running game, but losing Jay Cutler and potentially Marshall now would be devastating blows to this team.

Another problem for Denver lies in what they are going to be able to get in return for the highly talented, yet troublesome wide receiver. Marshall has had his fair share of off the field troubles and already served a suspension last year. He only has one year remaining on his contract, and any team that trades for him is going to have to work out a contract extension immediately. Finally, he is rehabbing from off season hip surgery which may drive down his value.

If Marshall is traded, look for the Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles or Chicago Bears to be involved in the mix. Reuniting Marshall with Cutler in Chicago would be a very intriguing situation, but that is probably my hometown team bias coming out.

Training camp is fast approaching

It has been a little over one month since I started this blog, and time is going by quickly. We are less than two months away from the start of training camps for NFL teams. It feels like the NFL just completed its annual draft, yet the fantasy football draft season will be here before you know it. I have been working on a few lists to get things started, including the top 10 rookies to keep an eye on this year and some of the bigger free agent and trade moves that occurred during the off season. Keep your eyes out for those posts very soon. If you have any suggestions for something you would like to see, please send me an email or post your comments here.

Lastly, for anyone who is considering playing in more than just a local league this year, I have a discount available for you. Some of you have heard me discuss my participation in the World Championship of Fantasy Football in the past. This event is the premier event in the world of fantasy football. Drafts are held around the country, with the biggest and best one being hosted in Las Vegas. This year's draft and activities will be hosted at the MGM Grand with a grand prize of $300,000 up for grabs. If you are interested, send me an email and I can give you more information and a discount code that is worth $100 off the entry fee.

Yousef and Steve at the World Championship of Fantasy Football.